The threat against Sweden is constantly changing

– The security situation in Sweden has been serious for several years now. The most recent developments in Iran and the Middle East have led to a further deterioration of the global security situation, and this also affects Sweden. However, there is a risk associated with using the most recent developments as a starting point, says Charlotte von Essen, Head of the Swedish Security Service.

The assessment is that the threat against Sweden will develop in such a way that the situation will continue to deteriorate in the coming years. The main threat factors are Russian goals and Russian security-threatening activities in Sweden’s vicinity. Russia remains the greatest threat to Sweden. China continues to pose a long-term threat when it comes to Sweden’s financial security.

The Swedish Security Service has established that Russia has become more inclined to take risks, and that the actions carried out by Russia have become more offensive and involve covert influence activities. There is also a Russian threat regarding sabotage targeting the West’s support activities on behalf of Ukraine. In Russia, there is an insatiable need for knowledge, technology, and products that can strengthen the Russian capability, and there are continuous efforts to circumvent the sanctions directed against Russia.

– In order to strengthen Europe’s, and Sweden’s, security, we all need to make greater efforts to make it more expensive, more difficult, and more complicated for Russia to continue its warfare. It can be both expensive and complicated for a company in Sweden to monitor supply chains and exports, but it could become even more expensive not to do it, says Charlotte von Essen.

Hybrid activities like sabotage

Russia has carried out hybrid activities, for example sabotage, targeting countries in Europe. This could also happen in Sweden. In the past year, the Swedish Security Service has handled several cases of suspected sabotage that were not possible to link to a foreign power.

– It is important that Sweden, as a society, continues to be vigilant and that we are prepared to act whenever necessary. Foreign powers are not behind everything that is going on, but when they are, we act, says Charlotte von Essen.

The terrorist threat level in Sweden remains elevated, level three on a five-level scale. An elevated threat level encompasses the possibility that a terrorist attack could occur. The attack threat mainly consists of lone actors or small groups using simple means to act against more accessible targets. At the same time, we also see a development where the violence itself is more important than the ideological motivation.

– Extreme violence in the digital world is a driving force for violent extremism. I find it of particular concern that so many young individuals are attracted to extremely violent content on various online forums, says Charlotte von Essen.

As the global security situation deteriorates, Sweden must increase its resilience. There are ongoing efforts to expand Sweden’s military and civilian defence. Protective security efforts are an important part of this.

– The threat is difficult to affect, but it is definitively possible to affect protection efforts. As entities grow, it is important that the security measures increase as well. This applies not least to personnel security. An insider involved in security-sensitive activities could cause great damage. As a national security service, we need to act decisively in cases where we suspect espionage, says Charlotte von Essen.